Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd38c…371e crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-14%) realized −$78 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$77
sports 4% −$1
tech 2% −$11
politics 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +21.3% +9.8% 29% 29% -30.0%
≤30d 21 +21.3% +9.8% 29% 29% -30.0%
≤90d 21 +21.3% +9.8% 29% 29% -30.0%
all 45 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 33% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 33% -26.0%
10% -21.6% 31% -33.1%
15% -29.2% 31% -39.6%
20% -36.1% 29% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage104d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$21 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 04 $15 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 04 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 04 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 04 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 04 $14 −$14 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 04 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 04 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 04 $15 +$15 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 04 $17 +$9 +55%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meetings with Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Cold" or "Colder" during meetings with Chancellor Merz Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Too Late" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $10 9m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.89 · official $18.89 (match) · 144 history records