Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D3 0xd38d…ad3e crypto 1245 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$371 (+2%) realized +$371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate74%918W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day54.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$50
14 days+$162
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 82% -8.2%
≤30d 633 +1.5% -8.2% 80% 80% -8.7%
≤90d 1245 +0.3% -9.3% 74% 73% -9.1%
all 1245 +0.3% -9.3% 74% 73% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 73% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 11% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 4% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses918 / 327
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1245 / 1245
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1245 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$14 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$15 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$14 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$16 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$15 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$15 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $16 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $22 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $12 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records