Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd38e…7edc crypto 58 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-11%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day119.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -45.0% -50.2% 24% 19% -38.1%
≤30d 58 -45.0% -50.2% 24% 19% -38.1%
≤90d 58 -45.0% -50.2% 24% 19% -38.1%
all 58 -45.0% -50.2% 24% 19% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.2% 19% -38.1%
10% ← realistic here -55.0% 16% -44.0%
15% -59.3% 14% -49.4%
20% -63.3% 9% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day119.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records