Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd398…5309 crypto 615 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$153 (-13%) realized −$149 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%291W / 321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$60
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$66
other 26% −$77
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -83.6% -85.1% 0% 0% -88.7%
≤30d 17 -90.3% -91.2% 0% 0% -91.3%
≤90d 612 -10.3% -18.9% 48% 48% -23.4%
all 612 -10.3% -18.9% 48% 48% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 48% -23.4%
10% -26.6% 48% -30.7%
15% -33.7% 47% -37.4%
20% -40.2% 46% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$149
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses291 / 321
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)612 / 615
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 612 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $97 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 222 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 26 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 26 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 26 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 26 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $72 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $41 6d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? AND Exact Score: Canada 1 - BUY 4¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY 2¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 7d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.62 · official $96.62 (match) · 1134 history records