Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd399…3f46
other · 93 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$15,646 +38%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,390 · open +$89
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,670
Realized+$4,390
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions62
Markets (closed)31 / 93
History coverage43d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day78.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 62 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days−$251
14 days+$257
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,109 $2,937 −$173 (-6%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $1,057 $1,096 +$39 (+4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1,064 $1,070 +$6 (+1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $562 $703 +$141 (+25%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $590 $609 +$18 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $560 $565 +$5 (+1%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 57¢ $593 $562 −$31 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $475 −$25 (-5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 6¢ 8¢ $309 $424 +$115 (+37%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $220 $205 −$15 (-7%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $166 $159 −$7 (-4%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $136 $146 +$10 (+7%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $123 $138 +$15 (+12%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 40¢ 40¢ $120 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $120 $115 −$5 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 75¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 70¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 62¢ 62¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 58¢ $52 $58 +$6 (+12%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 50¢ 54¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 47¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 68¢ $35 $44 +$9 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $180 +$40 +22%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $41 +$54 +132%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $39 +$18 +46%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $824 −$24 -3%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $236 −$44 -19%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $6,497 −$332 -5%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 08 $245 −$5 -2%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $336 +$8 +2%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 08 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $745 +$33 +4%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2,258 +$569 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1,332 −$103 -8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou May 30 $539 +$41 +8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $752 −$74 -10%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 May 20 $488 −$26 -5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 13 $120 +$15 +12%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 May 11 $952 −$3 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 06 $2,227 +$57 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 06 $8 +$4 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 05 $1,116 +$12 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 04 $590 +$4,066 +689%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 04 $6 +$1 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 03 $538 +$17 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 01 $730 +$64 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$4,230
politics 31% −$323
crypto 11% +$504
finance 6% +$97
world 2% −$24
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 22m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 23m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 25m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $220 33m
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $2 2h
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $0 2h
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $31 2h
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $4 3h
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $4 3h
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $0 3h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $0 3h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $6 3h
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $3 3h
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $14 3h
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 3h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $73 3h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $55 3h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $0 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $80 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $10 4h
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $2 4h
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $5 4h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $5 4h
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $47 4h
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $5 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $2 4h
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $40 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $2 4h
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $1 4h
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $81 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +7.0% -3.2% 53% 24% -11.8%
≤30d 23 +6.1% -4.0% 52% 26% -8.5%
≤90d 31 +29.1% +16.8% 61% 29% +9.0%
all 31 +29.1% +16.8% 61% 29% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.8% 29% +9.0%
10% +5.6% 23% -1.4%
15% ← realistic here -4.6% 13% -10.9%
20% -13.9% 6% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,670.44 · official $10,670.66 (match) · 3500 history records