Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd39c…8d35
politics · 281 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses70 / 192
Open positions19
Markets (closed)262 / 281
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day685.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 19 History 262 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% $0
other 24% $0
world 10% −$1
culture 7% $0
tech 6% −$1
economics 6% $0
crypto 3% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $0 0m
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 0m
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 59m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 59m
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $18 59m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? BUY No 100¢ $1 59m
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 59m
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 1% -9.5%
≤30d 262 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 262 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 1% -9.5%
all 262 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover685.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.04 · official $6.10 · 3500 history records