Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3a5…ea5b crypto 285 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized −$27 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%140W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day87.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 -6.0% -14.9% 49% 47% -11.1%
≤30d 284 -6.0% -14.9% 49% 47% -11.1%
≤90d 284 -6.0% -14.9% 49% 47% -11.1%
all 284 -6.0% -14.9% 49% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 47% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 44% -19.7%
15% -30.5% 41% -27.4%
20% -37.3% 37% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses140 / 144
Open positions1
Markets (closed)284 / 285
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day87.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 48¢ 100¢ $30 $62 +$32 (+107%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$12 +378%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$29 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $13 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.69 · official $58.59 · 687 history records