Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3a5…0f18 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized +$28 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$124
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$147
sports 6% −$22
politics 3% −$45
crypto 1% −$50
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -31.7% -38.2% 40% 33% -7.5%
≤30d 49 -33.1% -39.5% 39% 33% -8.3%
≤90d 51 -32.3% -38.8% 37% 31% -8.3%
all 51 -32.3% -38.8% 37% 31% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 31% -8.3%
10% -44.6% 29% -17.1%
15% -50.0% 18% -25.1%
20% -54.9% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions20
Markets (closed)51 / 71
History coverage54d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $53 $11 −$42 (-79%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $53 +$28 +53%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$8 -25%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $510 +$50 +10%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $54 −$40 -75%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 +$35 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,116 +$81 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,169 +$5 +0%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$7 +167%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$10 +29%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$17 +63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $11 −$6 -55%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -29%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 +$10 +24%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -93%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$2 -24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$9 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$24 +113%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$4 -29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 +$8 +33%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$10 -73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $57 +$22 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$38 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 07 $5 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 45m
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 1h
England to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 15¢ $23 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 1h
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 86¢ $20 4h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 7h
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $15 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.94 · official $288.94 (match) · 251 history records