Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3a6…0937 crypto 527 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,027 (-15%) realized −$7,025 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%240W / 608L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$398
other 8% −$1,978
sports 6% +$212
world 2% −$292
politics 2% +$26
weather 1% −$63
finance 1% −$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -99.8% -99.8% 0% 0% -99.7%
≤30d 342 -96.1% -96.5% 3% 1% -94.1%
≤90d 848 -42.0% -47.6% 28% 25% -50.2%
all 848 -42.0% -47.6% 28% 25% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.6% 25% -50.2%
10% ← realistic here -52.6% 23% -54.9%
15% -57.2% 20% -59.3%
20% -61.4% 18% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$89 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$7,025
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses240 / 608
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)848 / 527
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$88
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 848 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 34¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6AM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $296 −$296 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $111 −$441 -399%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $404 −$404 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$27 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $47 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $70 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $28 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $42 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $69 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $38 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.07 · official $29.08 (match) · 3500 history records