Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3a6…fd55
politics · 65 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
−$2,595 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27,878 · open +$5,138
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 22 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,238
7 days+$7,709
14 days−$15,989
30 days−$10,238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 74¢ 100¢ $26,280 $35,563 +$9,283 (+35%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 75¢ 97¢ $24,490 $31,680 +$7,190 (+29%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 73¢ 96¢ $18,255 $24,046 +$5,791 (+32%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $15,200 $19,720 +$4,520 (+30%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 61¢ 99¢ $8,948 $14,513 +$5,564 (+62%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 73¢ 82¢ $9,170 $10,369 +$1,200 (+13%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 29¢ 99¢ $1,230 $4,166 +$2,935 (+239%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,570 $3,623 +$53 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 22¢ 44¢ $948 $1,875 +$927 (+98%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1,330 $1,785 +$455 (+34%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1,112 $1,636 +$524 (+47%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,042 $1,050 +$8 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $307 $248 −$58 (-19%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 43¢ $616 $47 −$569 (-92%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $7,471 $46 −$7,424 (-99%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 17¢ $10,022 $30 −$9,992 (-100%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 11¢ 12¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+14%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 17¢ 39¢ $7 $17 +$9 (+130%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $270 $10 −$260 (-96%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 55¢ $2,005 $5 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 43¢ $16 $1 −$14 (-91%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $28 $1 −$28 (-98%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 31¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 34¢ $1,700 $0 −$1,700 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Jun 12 $2,238 −$2,238 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $519 +$147 +28%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $1,477 +$393 +27%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $7,259 +$9,408 +130%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $4,523 −$4,523 -100%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $5,091 +$6,167 +121%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 01 $4,300 +$1,264 +29%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $9,550 −$9,550 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $8,207 −$8,207 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $8,850 −$8,849 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 27 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 27 $950 −$950 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $10,218 +$1,317 +13%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $45,750 +$7,218 +16%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $2,100 −$1,700 -81%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t May 19 $4,750 +$250 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 19 $5,119 +$187 +4%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less tha May 19 $10,667 −$506 -5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 19 $16,800 +$2,886 +17%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $6,581 −$6,581 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $900 −$900 -100%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%? Apr 21 $137 −$136 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 21 $1,450 +$3,234 +223%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 12 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $1,500 +$3,161 +211%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $2,600 +$2,328 +90%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $2,350 −$2,313 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 09 $4,750 +$1,106 +23%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $915 +$1,071 +117%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $20,993 −$18,839 -90%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $11,600 +$6,255 +54%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 01 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Apr 01 $16,278 +$594 +4%
Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in t Mar 30 $341 −$341 -100%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $2,661 −$2,661 -100%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $1,169 −$697 -60%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $1,390 +$280 +20%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $3,192 +$1,535 +48%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $169 +$20 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $3,200 +$6,500 +203%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $650 −$650 -100%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 23 $854 −$689 -81%
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 23 $1,462 −$1,462 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5) Mar 23 $3,334 −$350 -10%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 22 $18 +$16 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 74% −$6,692
world 12% −$21,333
other 9% +$9,387
sports 4% −$2,070
finance 1% +$1,106
crypto 0% −$900
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 70¢ $3,287 2d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 80¢ $4,800 2d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 72¢ $8 2d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 58¢ $216 2d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 58¢ $216 2d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 59¢ $739 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 85¢ $4,028 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 85¢ $232 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 83¢ $98 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 83¢ $226 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 83¢ $142 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 83¢ $167 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 83¢ $39 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $227 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $101 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $101 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $468 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $232 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $1,403 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $466 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $49 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $84 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $196 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $157 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $51 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $455 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $51 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $45 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 84¢ $84 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.1% +9.6% 75% 75% +51.2%
≤30d 20 -24.8% -32.0% 50% 40% -15.6%
≤90d 51 -22.2% -29.6% 43% 37% -19.7%
all 51 -22.2% -29.6% 43% 37% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.6% 37% -19.7%
10% -36.3% 27% -27.4%
15% ← realistic here -42.5% 20% -34.4%
20% -48.1% 18% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150,471.22 · official $150,471.17 (match) · 3500 history records