trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $22,705 | +$856 | +4% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $3,460 | +$20 | +1% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1,951 | +$103 | +5% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $5,237 | −$171 | -3% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $5,947 | −$210 | -4% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $2,923 | −$69 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 12 | $205 | +$5 | +3% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $5,485 | −$98 | -2% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $198 | +$4 | +2% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1,690 | +$201 | +12% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $120 | +$125 | +104% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $40 | +$162 | +405% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $24 | +$12 | +50% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 10 | $9,993 | +$524 | +5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | +38.6% | +25.4% | 67% | 27% | -7.3% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +38.6% | +25.4% | 67% | 27% | -7.3% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +38.6% | +25.4% | 67% | 27% | -7.3% |
| all | 15 | +38.6% | +25.4% | 67% | 27% | -7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +25.4% | 27% | -7.3% |
| 10% | +13.4% | 20% | -16.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +2.5% | 20% | -24.3% |
| 20% | -7.6% | 20% | -31.7% |