Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd3a7…3b37 crypto 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$54 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%84W / 8L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$958now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$47
14 days+$49
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$62
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.9% -12.2% 73% 46% -8.4%
≤30d 43 -3.2% -12.4% 81% 28% -8.3%
≤90d 79 -1.5% -10.9% 90% 15% -8.4%
all 92 -1.3% -10.7% 91% 13% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 13% -8.4%
10% -19.2% 9% -17.2%
15% -27.0% 5% -25.2%
20% -34.2% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.03 per $1 lost it wins $7.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$958
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses84 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 97
History coverage108d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $948 $954 +$6 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $902 +$27 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +24%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $901 +$19 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $901 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $900 +$2 +0%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $949 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $929 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $902 47h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $920 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $901 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $901 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $901 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $902 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $900 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $2 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $957.52 · official $957.52 (match) · 183 history records