Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3a9…ab36 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+7%) realized +$51 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$8
14 days+$25
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$71
sports 10% +$25
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -48.3% -53.2% 33% 33% -40.3%
≤30d 8 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 50% -1.5%
≤90d 20 -3.8% -12.9% 50% 50% -2.9%
all 33 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 33% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 33% -3.8%
10% -16.9% 27% -13.0%
15% -24.9% 21% -21.4%
20% -32.3% 21% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage127d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $75 $82 +$7 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $201 +$23 +11%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$4 -40%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 03 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Apr 28 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $102 −$64 -63%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $8 +$4 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $97 +$52 +54%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $15 −$7 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $11 +$22 +199%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $2 +$27 +1327%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $77 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 35h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 5d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $211 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $201 8d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $119 11d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $6 11d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 84¢ $100 11d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $10 11d
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex BUY Hampshire 59¢ $10 18d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $96 53d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 53d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $46 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $23 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 54d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $100 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.28 · official $124.28 (match) · 69 history records