Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3aa…1524 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate49%30W / 31L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 23% +$7
politics 13% +$5
crypto 9% $0
sports 5% +$1
tech 5% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.9% -1.5% 25% 25% -7.0%
≤30d 9 +3.5% -6.4% 11% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +3.5% -6.4% 11% 11% -9.2%
all 61 +3.5% -6.3% 49% 7% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 7% -8.0%
10% -15.3% 5% -16.8%
15% -23.5% 5% -24.8%
20% -31.0% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses30 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage474d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $7 +$2 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $9 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $5 $0 +9%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 16 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down this week? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $37 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $37 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $9 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $7 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $33 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $24 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $2 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $25 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $27 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $19 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 49¢ $19 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 27d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 358d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $5 359d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $9 360d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? BUY No 92¢ $8 376d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 97¢ $9 376d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 97¢ $9 377d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 97¢ $9 377d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 97¢ $9 379d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.28 · official $36.28 (match) · 150 history records