Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:12:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ac…c84d crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+17%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$142
other 19% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -23.6%
≤30d 6 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -23.6%
≤90d 6 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -23.6%
all 6 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 50% -23.6%
10% -23.7% 33% -30.9%
15% -31.1% 33% -37.6%
20% -37.8% 33% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$56 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $150 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $146 −$7 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 +$54 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $150 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $146 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records