Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ad…b15e crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+1%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%167W / 4L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$22
other 23% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 1% -8.7%
≤30d 171 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 1% -8.7%
≤90d 171 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 1% -8.7%
all 171 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 1% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 1% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -17.4%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.4%
20% -33.4% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses167 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 171
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 30m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $13 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 417 history records