Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D3 0xd3ad…f13b sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$12 (-6%) realized −$4 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day29.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-12.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-2.8%	-12.1%	47%	47%	-19.9%
≤30d	17	-2.8%	-12.1%	47%	47%	-19.9%
≤90d	17	-2.8%	-12.1%	47%	47%	-19.9%
all	17	-2.8%	-12.1%	47%	47%	-19.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover29.1 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-12.1%	47%	-19.9%
10% ← realistic here	-20.5%	47%	-27.6%
15%	-28.2%	47%	-34.6%
20%	-35.2%	47%	-41.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +39% → late -40% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$45

Realized−$4

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions6

Markets (closed)17 / 23

History coverage2d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day29.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	46¢	66¢	$10	$14	+$4 (+42%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	3¢	$23	$9	−$14 (-60%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+5%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Over	49¢	50¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$10	−$5	-52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$5	−$3	-56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$5	+$6	+114%
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$5	+$7	+134%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$13	−$13	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$8	+81%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	−$10	-69%
O/U 1.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 15	$5	+$3	+54%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$10	+$7	+72%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$5	+$7	+134%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)	Jun 14	$10	+$7	+67%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$20	+$15	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	45¢	$5	3m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	3m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	24m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	24m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	24m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	24m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	24m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$5	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	18¢	$2	2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	19¢	$0	2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$5	7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$5	8h
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$5	8h
O/U 1.5 Rounds	BUY Under	46¢	$5	15h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	52¢	$5	15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	94¢	$18	16h
O/U 1.5 Rounds	BUY Over	56¢	$5	17h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$5	17h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	SELL Hurricanes	83¢	$8	17h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$5	17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	17h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$5	18h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	21¢	$5	18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	20h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Hurricanes	53¢	$5	26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	42¢	$5	26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	37¢	$5	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.69 · official $44.73 (match) · 64 history records