Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D3 0xd3b4…33a2 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$54 (+7%) realized +$77 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$11
14 days+$68
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$2
world 15% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.0% +3.2% 80% 20% -7.4%
≤30d 7 +31.0% +18.5% 71% 29% +1.7%
≤90d 7 +31.0% +18.5% 71% 29% +1.7%
all 7 +31.0% +18.5% 71% 29% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 29% +1.7%
10% +7.2% 29% -8.0%
15% -3.2% 29% -16.9%
20% -12.7% 29% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×5.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.84 per $1 lost it wins $13.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage22d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 95¢ 90¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $55 $40 −$15 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 +$57 +150%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $30 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $201 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $205 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $61 30h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $96 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $103 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $60 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $29 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.70 · official $231.70 (match) · 29 history records