Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd3b5…f7f0 crypto 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,325 (-3%) realized −$12,325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%278W / 22L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,386per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$982
7 days−$982
14 days−$982
30 days−$814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$2,105
politics 15% −$526
world 5% −$2,375
other 4% −$1,724
economics 3% +$844
tech 2% −$6,980
culture 2% +$175
finance 1% +$183
sports 0% −$70
weather 0% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.9% -16.7% 91% 0% -42.6%
≤30d 42 -3.0% -12.2% 95% 5% -18.7%
≤90d 65 -3.8% -13.0% 92% 6% -17.3%
all 300 -1.0% -10.5% 93% 5% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -12.2%
10% -19.0% 1% -20.6%
15% -26.9% 1% -28.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$1,974) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$1,162 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses278 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage588d
Avg bet$1,386
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 19, 9AM ET? Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 19, 8AM ET? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 8AM ET? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 7AM ET? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 7AM ET? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 6AM ET? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 19, 6AM ET? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 5AM ET? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 5AM ET? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 4AM ET? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 4AM ET? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 2AM ET? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 2AM ET? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 1AM ET? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 1AM ET? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 19 $113 +$7 +6%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $109 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 18, 12PM ET? Jun 18 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $205 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $884 −$884 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 01 $574 +$10 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $539 +$34 +6%
Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Air Force Academy Address? May 29 $331 +$7 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $299 +$32 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $288 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $277 +$11 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 25? May 25 $274 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10AM ET May 24 $273 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 24? May 24 $270 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10AM ET May 23 $265 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $228 +$37 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 23 $225 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1PM ET May 22 $223 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12PM ET May 22 $222 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12PM ET May 21 $218 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11AM ET May 21 $216 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6AM ET May 21 $217 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5PM ET May 20 $215 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1PM ET May 20 $213 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin above 77,000 on May 19, 2PM ET? May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin above 77,400 on May 19, 2PM ET? May 19 $114 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $211 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET May 19 $208 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $204 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET May 19 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $200 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 19, 9AM ET? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 19, 9AM ET? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 19, 9AM ET? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 19, 8AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 8AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $115 2h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 7AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 7AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $115 3h
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 19, 6AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 6AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $115 4h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 5AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 5AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $115 5h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 4AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 4AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $115 6h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 2AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 19, 2AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $115 8h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 1AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 19, 1AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $115 9h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA SELL No 100¢ $120 10h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 94¢ $113 15h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 97¢ $109 21h
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 18, 12PM ET? SELL No 100¢ $110 22h
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 18, 12PM ET? BUY No 98¢ $108 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $108 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $106 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $106 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $105 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $105 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $105 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1598 history records