Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3b8…6983
weather · 95 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$17 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$82
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)83 / 95
History coverage19d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? No 86¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? No 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Aurora 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $12 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$6 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$9 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $29 −$6 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 12 $23 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $17 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$5
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 19% -10.7%
≤30d 83 -4.8% -13.9% 48% 19% -11.3%
≤90d 83 -4.8% -13.9% 48% 19% -11.3%
all 83 -4.8% -13.9% 48% 19% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 19% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 10% -19.8%
15% -29.6% 2% -27.5%
20% -36.5% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.90 · official $81.90 (match) · 442 history records