Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3bf…8b09 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate67%42W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$2
other 6% −$4
politics 1% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 27% -10.5%
≤30d 63 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 27% -10.5%
≤90d 63 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 27% -10.5%
all 63 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 27% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 27% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 21% -19.1%
15% -32.4% 16% -26.9%
20% -39.0% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses42 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)63 / 68
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 54¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.55 · official $9.55 (match) · 185 history records