Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D3 0xd3c0…fbe6 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$402 (+8%) realized +$402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%34W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$5
world 15% +$242
sports 14% +$146
politics 4% −$24
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.2% +1.5% 67% 67% -2.0%
≤30d 6 +12.2% +1.5% 67% 67% -2.0%
≤90d 9 +16.1% +5.1% 67% 67% +2.6%
all 58 +23.8% +12.0% 59% 53% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 53% -4.5%
10% +1.3% 40% -13.6%
15% -8.5% 26% -22.0%
20% -17.5% 19% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$44 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses34 / 24
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage162d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $202 +$24 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $131 +$71 +54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $409 +$61 +15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $18 −$6 -34%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Jun 18 $88 −$85 -96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +122%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $122 +$71 +58%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $326 +$96 +29%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $218 −$34 -16%
Grizzlies vs. Magic Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 04 $205 −$205 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 04 $178 −$84 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 04 $123 −$123 -100%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 04 $237 +$54 +23%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 04 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 04 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during the Detroit speech on Tuesday? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 04 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 04 $118 +$71 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 04 $136 −$69 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Mar 04 $73 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 04 $168 +$53 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 04 $124 −$110 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during t Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 04 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Trump say "Somalia" or "Somalian" during the Detroit speech on Tu Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 04 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 04 $240 +$181 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 10 $34 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 10 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 09 $89 +$30 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 09 $112 +$49 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 09 $98 +$70 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 08 $39 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 08 $57 +$23 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 07 $68 +$29 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 07 $54 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 07 $104 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 07 $105 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 07 $10 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 06 $148 +$74 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 06 $95 +$41 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 06 $183 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 52¢ $59 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 46¢ $54 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 43¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 45¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $89 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 86¢ $37 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 55¢ $90 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 25¢ $42 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 43¢ $76 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 36¢ $66 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $469 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 56¢ $303 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 48¢ $106 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 17¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 23¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $11 2d
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $88 72d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 64¢ $78 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 60¢ $30 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 60¢ $26 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 60¢ $32 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records