Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D3 0xd3c6…4366 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,330 (-49%) realized −$2,177 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$598per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$650
other 42% −$1,840
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-62.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -72.8%
≤30d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -72.8%
≤90d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -72.8%
all 5 -58.1% -62.1% 20% 20% -72.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.1% 20% -72.8%
10% -65.7% 20% -75.4%
15% -69.0% 20% -77.8%
20% -72.1% 20% -80.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$523 vs −$715 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,077
Realized−$2,177
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$598
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $510 $515 +$5 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 34¢ $500 $345 −$155 (-31%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $477 +$523 +109%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,035 −$1,020 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $348 −$180 -52%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $144 −$140 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,531 −$1,520 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $224 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $517 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1,035 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $156 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $348 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $477 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,531 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,077.40 · official $1,092.50 · 10 history records