Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ca…2ad0 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$145 (-17%) realized −$153 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$67
politics 24% −$206
sports 15% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.8% -2.5% 80% 40% -0.7%
≤30d 16 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 38% -27.1%
≤90d 16 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 38% -27.1%
all 16 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 38% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 38% -27.1%
10% -17.3% 31% -34.1%
15% -25.3% 19% -40.5%
20% -32.6% 6% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$59 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage21d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $68 +$4 +6%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $65 +$3 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 +$3 +5%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $66 −$4 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $89 +$22 +25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$5 -48%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$12 +50%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $208 −$206 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 34m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $68 16h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 95¢ $65 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $62 19h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $62 20h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $66 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $44 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $44 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 6d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 75¢ $208 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.24 · official $100.24 (match) · 35 history records