Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ce…618d weather 1159 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$707 (+1%) realized +$700 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%1115W / 39L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$74
14 days−$140
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$375
world 1% −$126
other 0% −$38
tech 0% +$31
crypto 0% −$33
politics 0% +$2
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 18% -22.0%
≤30d 38 -7.0% -15.9% 76% 26% -19.8%
≤90d 1154 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 2% -9.3%
all 1154 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 2% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$34 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$700
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1115 / 39
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1154 / 1159
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Bradley Barcola score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $9 +$11 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14? Jun 15 $181 −$52 -29%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $35 +$15 +43%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $23 +$2 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $60 −$60 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $39 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $45 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 04 $47 $0 +1%
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 03 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $99 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $66 −$1 -2%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $23 +$2 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$6 +33%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $18 +$8 +43%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $18 +$7 +40%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $62 +$13 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 21? May 22 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 17? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17? May 20 $133 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $125 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 16? May 17 $43 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $84 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16? May 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 16? May 16 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $132 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $91 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 88¢ $88 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $35 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $106 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $49 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $13 5d
Will Bradley Barcola score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 10d
Will Bradley Barcola score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No $0 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No $0 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $7 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 56¢ $14 13d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 13d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 14d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $6 15d
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $4 15d
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $6 15d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $45 15d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 15d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 15d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 15d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $31 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.78 · official $230.78 (match) · 3500 history records