Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd3d0…d84b crypto 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$215 (-11%) realized −$91 · open −$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%45W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$248
7 days−$222
14 days−$243
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$257
weather 10% −$127
sports 8% +$37
other 6% −$61
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -33.3% -39.6% 25% 25% -55.4%
≤30d 141 -16.0% -24.0% 32% 30% -25.1%
≤90d 141 -16.0% -24.0% 32% 30% -25.1%
all 141 -16.0% -24.0% 32% 30% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 30% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 27% -32.2%
15% -37.9% 25% -38.8%
20% -44.0% 24% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses45 / 96
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions17
Markets (closed)141 / 164
History coverage20d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $33 $40 +$6 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $45 $4 −$41 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Yes 39¢ 5¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-87%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? No 23¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$9 -17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $15 −$11 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $146 −$146 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 +$11 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $12 +$13 +106%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$11 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$36 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$23 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$12 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 92¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.28 · official $55.28 (match) · 631 history records