Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd3d2…fe85 sports 296 markets active 5h ago coverage 85d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$397 (+0%) realized +$1,030 · open −$633
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%131W / 162L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,598per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$7,323est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$976
crypto 4% −$5,124
other 2% −$1,252
finance 1% +$1,236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -13.2% -21.5% 36% 36% -23.0%
≤30d 108 +7.6% -2.7% 45% 45% -14.2%
≤90d 293 +7.4% -2.8% 45% 45% -10.1%
all 293 +7.4% -2.8% 45% 45% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 45% -10.1%
10% -12.1% 44% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -20.6% 43% -26.6%
20% -28.4% 39% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$2,108) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,616 vs −$1,341 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1,030
Unrealized−$633
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses131 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$7,323
Open positions3
Markets (closed)293 / 296
History coverage85d
Avg bet$1,598
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? Yes $21 $29 +$8 (+38%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $13 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? No 10¢ $640 $3 −$637 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,000 −$278 -28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $855 −$49 -6%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $875 −$860 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $407 −$400 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,234 −$1,220 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3,086 −$3,050 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,709 −$1,680 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,424 +$1,725 +121%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $3,520 −$1,361 -39%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 20 $734 −$733 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $2,374 +$2,126 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,986 +$1,639 +55%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $429 +$1,281 +299%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $300 −$298 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3,234 +$1,223 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,612 −$1,590 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 −$132 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $944 −$933 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $641 +$453 +71%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $335 +$325 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $860 −$840 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $310 +$346 +112%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,587 −$2,550 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $88 −$82 -94%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,578 +$1,091 +42%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5,700 +$2,368 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3,948 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $3,552 +$2,600 +73%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $304 +$1,308 +431%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2,279 +$1,232 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,438 −$1,006 -41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,510 −$1,510 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,195 −$1,180 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,844 +$600 +33%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,790 −$1,776 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,518 +$982 +65%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $147 +$460 +312%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $497 +$1,122 +226%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $920 +$620 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $918 −$289 -32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $431 −$426 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3,128 −$3,110 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,524 +$1,198 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,412 +$577 +41%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $327 +$312 +96%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3,036 −$975 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $414 +$108 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $627 +$1,623 +259%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? BUY Yes $3 4h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? BUY Yes $19 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $722 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,000 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 41¢ $805 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $875 9h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 40¢ $407 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $855 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1,234 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3,086 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $1,709 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 60¢ $1,137 18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 61¢ $1 18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 61¢ $87 18h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 38¢ $948 18h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 38¢ $312 18h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 38¢ $767 18h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 38¢ $18 18h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 38¢ $2 18h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 38¢ $112 18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 35¢ $1,424 18h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 38¢ $13 22h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 38¢ $31 24h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 38¢ $61 24h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 38¢ $61 24h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 38¢ $31 24h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 38¢ $31 24h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 38¢ $31 24h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 38¢ $18 24h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 38¢ $31 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.65 · official $40.65 (match) · 2099 history records