Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3d2…525e world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$10
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$9
other 16% −$18
politics 13% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 14 +3.5% -6.3% 43% 7% -8.2%
≤90d 14 +3.5% -6.3% 43% 7% -8.2%
all 39 -2.3% -11.6% 41% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -10.2%
10% -20.0% 3% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 3% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage307d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 69¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $57 −$2 -4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $109 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $19 +$7 +38%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 +$2 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $21 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $42 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 05 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Nov 19 $26 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Septe Oct 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $24 +$2 +7%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Sep 02 $1 $0 -44%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $24 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $32 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $4 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $57 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $9 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $10 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $41 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $25 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $16 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $32 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $30 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.97 · official $31.97 (match) · 131 history records