Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D3 0xd3d3…bb8e sports 940 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,636 (-2%) realized −$28,634 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%421W / 518L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,412per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$2,672est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$13,369
other 34% −$2,837
world 2% +$5,403
crypto 0% −$391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 47% +4.2%
≤30d 94 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 39% -13.2%
≤90d 559 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 42% -9.4%
all 939 -5.6% -14.6% 45% 43% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 43% -10.3%
10% -22.7% 40% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -30.2% 33% -26.7%
20% -37.1% 26% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,053) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$771 vs −$648 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,418
Realized−$28,634
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses421 / 518
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,672
Open positions1
Markets (closed)939 / 940
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$1,412
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 939 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1,420 $1,418 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $738 +$1,237 +168%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $980 +$706 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,781 +$813 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,207 +$575 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $765 +$442 +58%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $999 −$985 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $81 +$73 +89%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,017 −$912 -90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $720 −$665 -92%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$472 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $594 +$1,346 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $296 −$291 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,215 −$1,200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,999 +$3,232 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,200 −$1,184 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $252 −$8 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,275 −$1,007 -79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,174 +$2,593 +82%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $581 +$25 +4%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $73 −$72 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $673 −$663 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $260 −$254 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $153 −$12 -8%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $376 +$274 +73%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,019 +$1,394 +137%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,605 +$1,640 +102%
Will Vanuatu win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 −$31 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5,266 −$3,024 -57%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $251 +$396 +158%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $697 +$316 +45%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 05 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,601 −$1,592 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $5,376 −$336 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $6,077 −$167 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $1,614 −$121 -8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $10,045 +$1,605 +16%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 04 $212 −$210 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 04 $303 −$303 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 04 $492 −$211 -43%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $7,056 −$633 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5,031 −$5,005 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $383 −$378 -99%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,356 +$184 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $1,392 −$36 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,950 −$2,379 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $867 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,975 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $565 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $383 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $610 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $598 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,781 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,782 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,207 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $492 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $154 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $154 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $106 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $106 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $81 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $509 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $506 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $55 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $705 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $979 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $296 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $84 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,418.00 · official $1,418.00 (match) · 3500 history records