Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3d4…6a75 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$9
other 16% −$2
politics 15% +$1
crypto 7% $0
tech 5% +$1
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 0% -11.3%
all 41 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.5% 0% -19.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage302d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 43¢ 92¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+113%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $20 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $32 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $78 −$8 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 23 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 09 $4 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $8 $0 -2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $9 +$1 +5%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $39 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Aug 22 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $27 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $35 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $19 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $20 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $20 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $5 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $7 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $25 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $36 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $35 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $35 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $32 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $32 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $32 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $32 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $23 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $35 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $18 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $7 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 43¢ $9 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $42 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $42 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records