Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3d5…4a92
crypto · 31 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$88 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$88 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 46¢ 100¢ $15 $33 +$18 (+117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 53¢ 100¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$18 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$44 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$54 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$10 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 45% +16.2%
≤30d 31 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 45% +16.2%
≤90d 31 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 45% +16.2%
all 31 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 45% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 45% +16.2%
10% -22.8% 45% +5.1%
15% -30.3% 45% -5.1%
20% -37.1% 45% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.70 · official $47.70 (match) · 61 history records