Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D3 0xd3d6…f384 crypto 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$128 (+3%) realized +$123 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%78W / 72L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$33
14 days+$37
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 53% +$23
other 26% +$12
crypto 21% +$36
world 1% −$9
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -11.4% -19.8% 56% 32% -8.2%
≤30d 101 -15.5% -23.5% 48% 31% -10.8%
≤90d 150 +3.2% -6.6% 52% 39% -8.1%
all 150 +3.2% -6.6% 52% 39% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 39% -8.1%
10% -15.6% 31% -16.9%
15% -23.7% 28% -24.9%
20% -31.2% 25% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses78 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)150 / 153
History coverage36d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $74 $76 +$2 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? Jun 23 $28 −$21 -76%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 23? Jun 23 $154 +$2 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? Jun 23 $668 +$3 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? Jun 23 $261 +$9 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? Jun 23 $186 −$3 -2%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $26 +$4 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 +$4 +70%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $23 −$4 -17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 22? Jun 22 $344 +$13 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +41%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $30 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 18? Jun 18 $179 +$48 +27%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +139%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $178 +$20 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $106 −$24 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$11 +171%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +5%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$1 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$6 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -37%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $491 +$11 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $890 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$7 +308%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $148 −$8 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$9 +841%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $156 36m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $644 36m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $270 48m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $74 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $114 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $144 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $123 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $113 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $78 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 3h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 3h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? BUY Yes 78¢ $21 3h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? SELL No 29¢ $1 4h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? BUY No 56¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? SELL Yes 80¢ $27 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $19 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? SELL No 89¢ $22 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? SELL No 92¢ $160 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $21 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $102 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $1 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $61 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? BUY Yes 88¢ $35 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.84 · official $91.84 (match) · 566 history records