Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3d9…f06a crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$141 (-21%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -47.3% -52.3% 31% 31% -47.3%
≤30d 38 -17.0% -24.9% 53% 53% -29.8%
≤90d 38 -17.0% -24.9% 53% 53% -29.8%
all 38 -17.0% -24.9% 53% 53% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 53% -29.8%
10% -32.1% 53% -36.5%
15% -38.7% 37% -42.7%
20% -44.7% 29% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage7d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$12 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $22 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $23 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $23 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records