Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3da…b7ad other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-6%) realized −$120 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%26W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$110
14 days−$211
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$23
sports 38% −$75
crypto 8% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -17.5% -25.4% 29% 28% -18.0%
≤30d 87 -22.2% -29.6% 28% 26% -24.5%
≤90d 87 -22.2% -29.6% 28% 26% -24.5%
all 90 -19.2% -26.9% 29% 28% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 28% -22.1%
10% -33.9% 28% -29.6%
15% -40.3% 26% -36.4%
20% -46.2% 23% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 64
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)90 / 98
History coverage205d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $127 $179 +$52 (+41%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $58 $53 −$5 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $3 $8 +$4 (+150%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+75%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 −$15 -26%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 +$10 +73%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$25 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$15 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $23 +$24 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$34 +89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$42 +413%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $42 +$22 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$7 +43%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -70%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +63%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $21 +$22 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 49m
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 50m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 52m
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 53m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $42 55m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $14 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $25 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $19 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $23 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.42 · official $266.27 · 204 history records