Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3db…f112
crypto · 104 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,938 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,933 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,025
Realized−$1,933
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses66 / 35
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage25d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 3 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,764
7 days−$987
14 days−$1,848
30 days−$1,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $1,000 $986 −$14 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 71¢ 94¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 75¢ 93¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $1,815 −$1,761 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,728 +$758 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$19 +94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $747 −$747 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 +$22 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$7 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$17 +165%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $5 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May? May 31 $145 −$70 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 30 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 30 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 30 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 30 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 30 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 30 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $36 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 30 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 30 $41 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 30 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $25 −$14 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 30 $10 +$17 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 30 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 31? May 30 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 30 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $5 +$9 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$1,804
crypto 11% +$17
weather 6% −$110
tech 3% +$23
other 2% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $917 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 37h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $801 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 3¢ $54 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $1,014 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 84¢ $631 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 53¢ $406 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 50¢ $435 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 34¢ $204 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 34¢ $102 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 66¢ $1,420 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $1,016 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 70¢ $40 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $20 8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 74¢ $11 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $737 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 38% -34.0%
≤30d 101 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 45% -38.0%
≤90d 101 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 45% -38.0%
all 101 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 45% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 45% -38.0%
10% -15.9% 31% -44.0%
15% -24.0% 26% -49.4%
20% -31.5% 23% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.80 · official $1,024.80 (match) · 297 history records