Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3db…7bb1 other 136 markets active 1d ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-15%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%45W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$52
sports 16% −$8
crypto 12% −$8
world 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.1% -45.8% 29% 29% -49.1%
≤30d 7 -40.1% -45.8% 29% 29% -49.1%
≤90d 12 -50.8% -55.5% 25% 25% -59.5%
all 136 -14.7% -22.8% 33% 32% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 32% -25.0%
10% -30.2% 31% -32.2%
15% -37.0% 27% -38.7%
20% -43.2% 25% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses45 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage136d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Both Teams to Score May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $11 +$2 +15%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $1 +$3 +266%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $2 +$5 +241%
Will AS Roma vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $1 +$5 +456%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $3 +$4 +142%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 +$3 +161%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 +$5 +270%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $3 +$3 +104%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $3 +$3 +85%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $1 +$1 +52%
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 28h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 6d
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 40d
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 42d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 42d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 42d
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 43d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 43d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 43d
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 8¢ $2 93d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 93d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5) BUY RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 26¢ $1 101d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 101d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 102d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 102d
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 103d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 103d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 103d
Will Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 103d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 103d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 103d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 103d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-06? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records