Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

D3 0xd3e4…f6e6 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate37%7W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$11

7 days+$43

14 days+$43

30 days+$43

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)-16.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+16.5%	+5.4%	47%	40%	+8.9%
≤30d	15	+16.5%	+5.4%	47%	40%	+8.9%
≤90d	15	+16.5%	+5.4%	47%	40%	+8.9%
all	19	-8.0%	-16.8%	37%	32%	-13.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.8%	32%	-13.9%
10%	-24.8%	32%	-22.1%
15%	-32.0%	32%	-29.7%
20%	-38.7%	32%	-36.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -71% → late +49% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage

Net worth$37

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)37%

Wins / losses7 / 12

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)19 / 23

History coverage176d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$50	+$3	+6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	−$4	-85%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$20	+$15	+76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$1	+$4	+344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$5	+$4	+79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$14	+282%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$16	+$13	+82%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$10	−$3	-28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Jun 14	$50	+$45	+90%
Hawks vs. Lakers	Jan 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?	Jan 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Jan 13	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?	Jan 09	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$10	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	94¢	$50	1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	56¢	$20	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	67¢	$20	5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$29	5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$5	5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	24¢	$7	5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	32¢	$10	5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	54¢	$16	5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$15	6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	13¢	$2	6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	6d
Hawks vs. Lakers	BUY Hawks	9¢	$5	157d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	157d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY Yes	9¢	$15	158d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?	BUY No	19¢	$10	162d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?	BUY No	40¢	$10	162d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	169d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.80 · official $36.83 (match) · 43 history records