Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd3e7…bf64 sports 618 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (527 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54,597 (-21%) realized −$54,826 · open +$229
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%230W / 184L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day527.3pace
Fees−$2,335est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$80,610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,387
other 31% −$4,748
politics 1% −$165
crypto 1% +$735
world 0% +$1,488
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (527 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 414 +4.2% -5.8% 56% 34% -11.4%
≤30d 414 +4.2% -5.8% 56% 34% -11.4%
≤90d 414 +4.2% -5.8% 56% 34% -11.4%
all 414 +4.2% -5.8% 56% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover527.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 34% -11.4%
10% -14.8% 32% -19.9%
15% ← realistic here -23.0% 30% -27.6%
20% -30.6% 27% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$721) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$331 vs −$437 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$80,610
Realized−$54,826
Unrealized+$229
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses230 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2,335
Open positions276
Markets (closed)414 / 618
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$431
Trades / day527.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 276 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,958 $2,986 +$28 (+1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,744 $2,746 +$2 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $2,744 $2,709 −$35 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 80¢ $2,789 $2,551 −$238 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,448 $2,459 +$11 (+0%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $2,203 $2,229 +$26 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 76¢ $2,197 $2,050 −$147 (-7%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 94¢ 86¢ $2,060 $1,890 −$170 (-8%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,840 $1,840 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $1,740 $1,790 +$50 (+3%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 98¢ $1,577 $1,713 +$136 (+9%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 79¢ $1,976 $1,658 −$318 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $1,649 $1,607 −$42 (-3%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 75¢ 96¢ $1,194 $1,528 +$334 (+28%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,356 $1,391 +$35 (+3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,335 $1,380 +$45 (+3%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 90¢ 88¢ $1,168 $1,149 −$20 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 43¢ 44¢ $1,114 $1,127 +$13 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 52¢ 62¢ $868 $1,044 +$175 (+20%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $976 $996 +$20 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $995 $994 −$0 (-0%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 42¢ 48¢ $840 $950 +$110 (+13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $815 $905 +$90 (+11%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $860 $895 +$35 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $825 $832 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 18 $133 −$133 -100%
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 18 $214 −$214 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $456 −$456 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 18 $242 −$242 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $900 −$900 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 18 $5,920 −$1,920 -32%
ITF Kayseri: Fumin Jiang vs Ammar Faleh Alhogbani Jun 18 $275 $0 +0%
Jiang vs. Alhogbani: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
ITF Men Kayseri: Completed Match: Fumin Jiang vs Ammar Faleh Alhogbani Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Jiang vs. Alhogbani: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Jiang vs. Alhogbani: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Alhogbani (-1.5) vs Jiang (+1.5) Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Jiang vs Alhogbani Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Jiang vs. Alhogbani: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Jiang vs. Alhogbani: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Jiang vs. Alhogbani: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Fumin Jiang vs. Ammar Faleh Alhogbani: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Herea vs. Rocchetti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Herea vs. Rocchetti: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Carmen Andreea Herea vs. Sofia Rocchetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Herea vs. Rocchetti: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Herea vs. Rocchetti: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
ITF Women San Gregorio: Completed Match: Carmen Andreea Herea vs Sofia Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Herea vs. Rocchetti: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
George vs. Sorger: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Benjamin Thomas George vs. Sebastian Sorger: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Noah Karma vs. Justin Schlageter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pawlak vs. Arifullina: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 21m
Pawlak vs. Arifullina: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 21m
Pawlak vs. Arifullina: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 21m
Pawlak vs. Arifullina: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 22m
Pawlak vs. Arifullina: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 22m
Lucie Pawlak vs. Arina Arifullina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $100 22m
Set 1 Winner: Karatancheva vs Buyukakcay BUY Buyukakcay 100¢ $6 24m
Karatancheva vs. Buyukakcay: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $185 24m
Karatancheva vs. Buyukakcay: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $185 24m
Karatancheva vs. Buyukakcay: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $29 24m
Set 1 Winner: Karatancheva vs Buyukakcay BUY Buyukakcay 100¢ $165 24m
Carlini vs. Blaydes: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 26m
Carlini vs. Blaydes: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 26m
Carlini vs. Blaydes: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $170 26m
Carlini vs. Blaydes: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 27m
Set 2 Winner: Carlini vs Blaydes BUY Blaydes 100¢ $156 27m
Set 1 Winner: Carlini vs Blaydes BUY Blaydes 100¢ $156 27m
ITF Men Monastir: Completed Match: Gianluca Carlini vs Billy Blaydes BUY Yes 100¢ $14 27m
ITF Monastir: Gianluca Carlini vs Billy Blaydes BUY Billy Blaydes 100¢ $20 27m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 100¢ $34 28m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 100¢ $80 28m
Vasiliauskas vs. Iakubenko: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 29m
Vasiliauskas vs. Iakubenko: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 29m
Vasiliauskas vs. Iakubenko: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 29m
Set 2 Winner: Vasiliauskas vs Iakubenko BUY Iakubenko 100¢ $156 29m
Set 1 Winner: Vasiliauskas vs Iakubenko BUY Iakubenko 100¢ $156 29m
Vasiliauskas vs. Iakubenko: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 30m
Vasiliauskas vs. Iakubenko: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $170 30m
Vasiliauskas vs. Iakubenko: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 30m
Matas Vasiliauskas vs. Volodymyr Iakubenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $156 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80,610.03 · official $80,624.66 (match) · 3500 history records