Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

D3 0xd3e7…55bc sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate86%18W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day8.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)+8.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+20.2%	+8.7%	86%	52%	-10.4%
≤30d	21	+20.2%	+8.7%	86%	52%	-10.4%
≤90d	21	+20.2%	+8.7%	86%	52%	-10.4%
all	21	+20.2%	+8.7%	86%	52%	-10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.7%	52%	-10.4%
10%	-1.7%	33%	-18.9%
15%	-11.2%	24%	-26.8%
20%	-19.9%	19%	-33.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

39% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +28% → late +13% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$45 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.96 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses18 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage6d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day8.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 15	$6	$0	+1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$14	+$1	+11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5	Jun 14	$13	$0	+3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$11	+$3	+24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$85	−$76	-89%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$55	+$8	+14%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$78	+$2	+3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$63	+$15	+24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$27	+$28	+105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$70	−$42	-60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$34	+$35	+104%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$30	+$4	+14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$19	−$19	-100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$19	+$10	+54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	Jun 11	$18	+$2	+9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$12	+$5	+43%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 11	$11	+$1	+7%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5	Jun 10	$11	+$1	+7%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5	Jun 10	$10	+$1	+7%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5	Jun 09	$16	+$3	+18%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5	Jun 09	$5	+$11	+223%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	SELL Down	81¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$1	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$15	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	90¢	$14	2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	100¢	$14	7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	97¢	$13	7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$13	7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5	BUY Over	80¢	$11	9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	98¢	$5	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	5¢	$5	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	83¢	$81	25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$80	26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	97¢	$78	26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	77¢	$78	26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	61¢	$63	28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	87¢	$55	29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$55	30h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$27	31h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$8	32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	12¢	$1	32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	24¢	$20	32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	81¢	$69	34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	98¢	$68	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$34	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	SELL No	91¢	$34	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	79¢	$30	2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$30	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records