Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3e9…cae3 weather 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-19%) realized −$156 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$43
other 29% +$15
weather 25% −$93
crypto 11% −$5
world 4% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -44.6% -49.9% 50% 50% -0.3%
≤30d 4 -72.3% -74.9% 25% 25% -12.9%
≤90d 60 -37.3% -43.3% 18% 17% -33.4%
all 60 -37.3% -43.3% 18% 17% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 17% -33.4%
10% -48.7% 15% -39.7%
15% -53.7% 15% -45.6%
20% -58.2% 13% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage60d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 80¢ 100¢ $177 $221 +$44 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $162 +$18 +11%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 2? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 2? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 2? May 01 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 2? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 2? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 01 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 2? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 01 $3 +$6 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 2? May 01 $0 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 01 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 01 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 01 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 01 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 01 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 01 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 1? May 01 $0 +$2 +481%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 1? May 01 $1 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 1? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 30? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1? May 01 $1 +$10 +996%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1? Apr 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 30? Apr 30 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 30? Apr 30 $0 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 30? Apr 30 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on April 29? Apr 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Apr Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Apr Apr 30 $3 −$1 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $178 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Jordan vs. Argentina BUY 5¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $180 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 89¢ $162 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY 19¢ $2 2h
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 40d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 56d
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 56d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 2? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.88 · official $221.85 (match) · 289 history records