Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ec…307c other 127 markets active 3h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$18
politics 28% −$11
sports 8% −$24
tech 5% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 94 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -1.1% -10.5% 10% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage126d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $210 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $183 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $401 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $162 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,304 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $368 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $426 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $236 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $192 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $338 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $208 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $174 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $201 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $209 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $167 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $244 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $423 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $189 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $388 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $371 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $222 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 10h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 14h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 20h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 31h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $180 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $180 24d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 26d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 26d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 28d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $193 28d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $193 29d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $183 29d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $183 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 400 history records