Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D3 0xd3ec…6603 world 69 markets active 4h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$35,097 (+14%) realized +$25,908 · open +$9,189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%31W / 23L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$3,541per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$68,741now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,387
14 days−$3,048
30 days−$545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$29,690
other 7% +$2,013
politics 3% +$133
finance 1% −$429
tech 0% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.6% -6.3% 62% 62% -0.9%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 57% -10.5%
≤90d 48 +1.2% -8.4% 58% 50% +3.9%
all 54 +15.0% +4.1% 57% 48% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 48% +4.1%
10% ← realistic here -5.9% 31% -5.9%
15% -15.0% 17% -15.0%
20% -23.3% 13% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$2,969) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,200 vs −$660 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$68,741
Realized+$25,908
Unrealized+$9,189
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses31 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)54 / 69
History coverage110d
Avg bet$3,541
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 61¢ 70¢ $21,634 $25,138 +$3,505 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 95¢ $14,859 $19,913 +$5,054 (+34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 54¢ $15,993 $17,323 +$1,329 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 78¢ 80¢ $5,017 $5,204 +$187 (+4%)
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet? No 31¢ 44¢ $161 $228 +$67 (+42%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $371 $228 −$143 (-39%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+5%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 52¢ 79¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Yes 86¢ 16¢ $638 $119 −$519 (-81%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? Yes 24¢ 5¢ $403 $84 −$319 (-79%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $80 $68 −$12 (-16%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will David Lammy be in the Burnham cabinet? No 56¢ 49¢ $22 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Will Bridget Phillipson be in the Burnham cabinet? Yes 47¢ 68¢ $9 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $9,639 −$656 -7%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $2,297 +$1,874 +82%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $256 +$31 +12%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $99 +$11 +11%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $579 +$107 +18%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1,300 +$182 +14%
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect Jun 20 $61 −$36 -59%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 20 $301 −$125 -42%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1,385 −$138 -10%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5,900 +$1,147 +19%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 18 $688 −$352 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $19,960 +$676 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5,769 −$5,769 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $203 −$194 -95%
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 12 $57 −$50 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $3,269 −$3,269 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,780 +$220 +12%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $2,513 +$592 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9,548 +$4,452 +47%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,447 +$552 +38%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 28 $700 +$201 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $11,488 +$6,879 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4,302 +$398 +9%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $197 +$63 +32%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $1,977 +$1,126 +57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $20,536 +$3,838 +19%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? May 06 $70 +$121 +173%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 2 May 04 $900 −$900 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $4,004 +$396 +10%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-Ap Apr 24 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $27,948 +$9,045 +32%
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12 Apr 12 $1,340 −$657 -49%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 12 $1,721 −$969 -56%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 09 $1,500 +$212 +14%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 09 $2,969 +$285 +10%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 09 $4,261 +$1,233 +29%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-Ap Apr 09 $5,175 +$1,307 +25%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5 Apr 05 $21 −$5 -26%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5 Apr 05 $165 −$148 -90%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $3,262 +$361 +11%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Mar 31 $90 −$90 -100%
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Mar 31 $217 −$217 -100%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Mar 31 $50 −$36 -73%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? Mar 31 $21 +$90 +429%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29 Mar 31 $391 +$40 +10%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23 Mar 31 $2,766 +$852 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 26 $800 +$76 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 22 $480 −$140 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 82¢ $779 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $3,867 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $6,410 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 68¢ $10 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $420 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $161 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $89 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $396 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 69¢ $2,078 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $73 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $287 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $88 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $368 15h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 21h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $240 24h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 24h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 86¢ $1,238 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 86¢ $197 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 86¢ $470 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 86¢ $246 29h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $63 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 54¢ $625 37h
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet? BUY No 31¢ $37 2d
Will Bridget Phillipson be in the Burnham cabinet? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $94 2d
Will David Lammy be in the Burnham cabinet? BUY No 56¢ $23 2d
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet? BUY No 31¢ $128 2d
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $183 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,740.53 · official $68,740.53 (match) · 594 history records