Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd3ec…0a13 crypto 1016 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,844 (-55%) realized −$5,845 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate58%585W / 428L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$474
other 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -65.1% -68.4% 26% 26% -28.2%
≤30d 69 -75.1% -77.5% 19% 16% -51.8%
≤90d 423 -17.6% -25.5% 52% 27% -17.7%
all 1013 -15.7% -23.8% 58% 27% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 27% -13.9%
10% -31.1% 22% -22.1%
15% -37.7% 16% -29.7%
20% -43.8% 11% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$5,845
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses585 / 428
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1013 / 1016
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1013 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 25? Down 67¢ 69¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 25? Up 45¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 25? Down 54¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $7 +$3 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 67¢ $13 46m
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 66¢ $7 50m
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 51¢ $6 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 51¢ $5 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 51¢ $39 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 45¢ $15 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 46¢ $2 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 46¢ $6 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 45¢ $24 2h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 54¢ $4 2h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 54¢ $21 2h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 54¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.72 · official $20.91 (match) · 3500 history records