Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ee…75a8 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81 (-10%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%43W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$51
sports 12% −$31
other 5% −$5
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 67% +9.6%
≤30d 3 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 67% +9.6%
≤90d 44 -28.4% -35.2% 39% 36% -28.3%
all 95 -19.1% -26.8% 45% 36% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 36% -20.3%
10% -33.8% 34% -27.9%
15% -40.2% 28% -34.9%
20% -46.1% 21% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses43 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage144d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Mandel Nallo 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Curtis Blaydes 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card) Kyler Phillips 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - World Championship M7 Playoffs Selangor Red Giants 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) Moreno 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 1AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +107%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $8 −$5 -65%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 20 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 +$8 +165%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs RRQ Hoshi (BO3) - MP Apr 19 $4 +$1 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Apr 12 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $3 +$3 +87%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $2 +$4 +194%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $6 +$3 +55%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 08 $6 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 08 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 08 $12 +$10 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 08 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 08 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 08 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 08 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $7 +$6 +86%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 23 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$9 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 23 $8 +$3 +36%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Ca Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11PM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca Mar 01 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 28 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 21h
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 43d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 43d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 43d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 43d
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C BUY Ollie Schmid 16¢ $1 43d
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim SELL Brando Pericic 100¢ $4 43d
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim BUY Brando Pericic 51¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $7 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 56d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 56d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 56d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs RRQ Hoshi (BO3) - MP SELL Bigetron by Vitality 100¢ $5 56d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs RRQ Hoshi (BO3) - MP BUY Bigetron by Vitality 73¢ $4 56d
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Kyler Phillips 45¢ $1 57d
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Kyler Phillips 45¢ $2 57d
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Mandel Nallo 60¢ $3 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 63d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) SELL Bigetron by Vitality 0¢ $0 63d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Bigetron by Vitality 60¢ $4 63d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Bigetron by Vitality 69¢ $4 63d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car SELL Carlos Ulberg 99¢ $6 63d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Carlos Ulberg 52¢ $3 63d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca SELL Paulo Costa 99¢ $6 63d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Paulo Costa 33¢ $2 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $1.02 (match) · 191 history records