Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3ee…45f0
crypto · 1432 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$598 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$600 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized−$600
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1055 / 373
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1428 / 1432
History coverage133d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 4 History 1428 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 82¢ 90¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Toby Samuel 81¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 88¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Darja Vidmanova 76¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +29%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +29%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $4 +$2 +41%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$16 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $16 −$8 -52%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 11 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +8%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $16 +$2 +11%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $16 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 −$7 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +6%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $13 +$1 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$454
sports 36% −$67
weather 7% −$67
other 5% $0
world 0% −$12
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Darja Vidmanova 76¢ $5 21m
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren BUY Toby Samuel 81¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $6 28m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $6 29m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 79¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 37m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 59¢ $4 59m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 76¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 80¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 49¢ $2 10h
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) SELL Golden Knights 15¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $4 13h
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Golden Knights 82¢ $6 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +2.1% -7.6% 84% 38% -11.6%
≤30d 264 -6.4% -15.3% 77% 33% -13.5%
≤90d 648 -3.6% -12.8% 81% 29% -11.1%
all 1428 -5.9% -14.9% 74% 35% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 35% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 16% -22.6%
15% -30.4% 10% -30.0%
20% -37.3% 7% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.98 · official $23.98 (match) · 3500 history records