Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ee…663b sports 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,651 (-15%) realized −$2,651 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%75W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$289est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$154
14 days+$219
30 days−$940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,671
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -18.9% -26.6% 42% 38% -14.4%
≤30d 94 -20.6% -28.2% 43% 37% -18.7%
≤90d 183 -20.6% -28.2% 41% 38% -23.1%
all 183 -20.6% -28.2% 41% 38% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 38% -23.1%
10% -35.1% 32% -30.5%
15% -41.3% 25% -37.2%
20% -47.1% 22% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$76 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,651
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses75 / 108
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage55d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $14 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $88 +$33 +38%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $231 +$69 +30%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $182 −$179 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 20 $33 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $238 +$157 +66%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $240 −$236 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Vitality (+3.5) Jun 19 $34 +$10 +30%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $304 +$145 +48%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $77 +$131 +170%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $68 −$67 -99%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $28 −$5 -18%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $156 +$144 +92%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $148 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $195 +$114 +59%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $106 −$105 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $134 −$132 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $107 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $149 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $191 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $270 +$93 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $75 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $171 +$101 +59%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $158 −$158 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $276 +$124 +45%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $188 +$174 +92%
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 10 $126 +$154 +122%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $98 −$98 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $126 $0 -0%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $45 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $56 +$85 +152%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $228 −$228 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $141 +$159 +113%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $153 +$19 +13%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $170 +$130 +76%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $120 −$26 -21%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $144 +$156 +108%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 09 $69 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $4 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $34 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 45¢ $15 28m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 39¢ $14 31m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 74¢ $122 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 54¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 54¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 54¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 47¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 77¢ $223 18h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 77¢ $8 18h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS - Map 2 Winner BUY CHAOS 8¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 53¢ $182 23h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 SELL Over 51¢ $1 44h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 SELL Over 51¢ $4 44h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 SELL Over 51¢ $33 44h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Over 45¢ $33 44h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $300 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $153 46h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S SELL KOLESIE 58¢ $95 46h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $85 46h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 50¢ $240 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Vitality (+3.5) SELL Vitality 65¢ $1 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Vitality (+3.5) SELL Vitality 65¢ $44 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Vitality (+3.5) BUY Vitality 50¢ $34 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 73¢ $27 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 74¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 5¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Hive 100¢ $450 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $208 2d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 67¢ $304 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 37¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 548 history records