Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3f0…a4cc weather 208 markets active 21h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$731 (+10%) realized +$731 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%95W / 113L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days+$60
14 days+$290
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$567
sports 3% −$23
politics 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -12.6% -20.9% 45% 31% -5.9%
≤30d 124 -7.2% -16.0% 40% 31% -10.8%
≤90d 208 +6.0% -4.1% 46% 38% -3.2%
all 208 +6.0% -4.1% 46% 38% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 38% -3.2%
10% -13.2% 32% -12.4%
15% -21.6% 26% -20.9%
20% -29.3% 22% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$731
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses95 / 113
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage72d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$22 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 −$47 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$31 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 +$46 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$9 +100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $343 +$25 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$7 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $125 −$36 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $360 +$117 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$30 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$20 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $31 −$11 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $13 −$12 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $112 +$36 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $47 +$22 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$14 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 −$5 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $73 −$13 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$44 +418%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $16 +$37 +231%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $29 −$14 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $76 +$28 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $50 −$17 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $107 +$15 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 +$13 +174%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $54 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 64¢ $40 42h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 42h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 42h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 76¢ $15 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 78¢ $17 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 70¢ $15 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 70¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 70¢ $10 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 70¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $22 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1402 history records