Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3f1…7535 sports 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized +$977 · open −$1,052
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%34W / 110L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day46.9pace
Fees−$269est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -40.3% -46.0% 22% 17% -35.1%
≤30d 144 -48.8% -53.7% 24% 20% -34.8%
≤90d 144 -48.8% -53.7% 24% 20% -34.8%
all 144 -48.8% -53.7% 24% 20% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.7% 20% -34.8%
10% ← realistic here -58.1% 17% -41.0%
15% -62.2% 14% -46.7%
20% -65.9% 11% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -59% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$67 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized+$977
Unrealized−$1,052
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses34 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$269
Open positions5
Markets (closed)144 / 149
History coverage15d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ 44¢ $550 $546 −$4 (-1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 52¢ 56¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ 0¢ $372 $1 −$371 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ 0¢ $526 $0 −$525 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 9¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-99%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$22 +72%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $321 −$194 -60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $112 −$110 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $134 −$132 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $213 −$200 -94%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $119 −$117 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,004 −$1 -0%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $618 −$210 -34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $335 +$382 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$28 +91%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $500 −$392 -78%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $620 −$610 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,211 +$135 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2,017 −$10 -0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $139 +$621 +448%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,018 −$13 -1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $224 −$110 -49%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,011 +$43 +4%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $212 −$110 -52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $122 −$50 -41%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1,164 −$157 -14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,364 +$248 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $446 −$110 -25%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $251 +$30 +12%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $63 −$62 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $366 −$161 -44%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $114 −$13 -12%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $115 +$208 +180%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $48 −$47 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $1,024 −$10 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $102 0m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ $102 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ $102 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ $102 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ $102 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 47¢ $102 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $101 3m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $10 8m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 20¢ $10 10m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 14¢ $10 15m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $10 22m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $10 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $208 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 96¢ $100 45m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 96¢ $100 46m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $0 51m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $0 52m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $0 53m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $0 53m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $0 53m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $1 54m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 5¢ $10 56m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $475 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $9 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 10¢ $1 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 9¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 6¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 6¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.51 · official $727.64 · 722 history records