Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd3f3…03dc crypto 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$236 (-3%) realized −$227 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%168W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day53.4pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$27
14 days−$441
30 days−$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$401
crypto 45% +$59
other 2% −$76
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -13.9% -22.1% 58% 36% -11.1%
≤30d 303 -9.3% -17.9% 55% 33% -14.4%
≤90d 303 -9.3% -17.9% 55% 33% -14.4%
all 303 -9.3% -17.9% 55% 33% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 33% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 22% -22.6%
15% -32.9% 16% -30.1%
20% -39.5% 13% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses168 / 135
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 305
History coverage15d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day53.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 23¢ 13¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$19 +95%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +249%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 23¢ $20 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 22¢ $19 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 23¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.31 · official $11.31 (match) · 896 history records