Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3f6…0fae sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-5%) realized −$5 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%18W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$13
sports 35% +$6
other 13% −$9
politics 6% −$5
crypto 5% +$9
weather 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -29.4% -36.2% 67% 0% -37.3%
≤90d 24 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 46% -17.0%
all 27 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 48% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 48% -12.5%
10% -20.3% 41% -20.9%
15% -28.0% 33% -28.6%
20% -35.0% 19% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses18 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage108d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 15¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 04 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? May 04 $6 +$1 +24%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 23 $6 +$1 +20%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 21 $5 +$3 +49%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Penguins Apr 13 $5 +$6 +113%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Panthers vs. Penguins Apr 07 $6 +$3 +47%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 05 $6 +$4 +64%
Hawks vs. Pistons Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Apr 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $6 $0 -4%
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins Mar 23 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $7 $0 +5%
Hawks vs. Mavericks Mar 20 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 20 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 4? Mar 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Flames vs. Kings Mar 02 $6 +$4 +70%
Knicks vs. Bucks Feb 28 $5 +$2 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 24d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 35d
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 49d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 54d
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 67¢ $5 57d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 52¢ $6 62d
Capitals vs. Penguins BUY Capitals 47¢ $5 65d
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, BUY No 83¢ $6 68d
Panthers vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 68¢ $6 70d
Penguins vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 61¢ $6 73d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY No 34¢ $6 75d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes BUY Iowa Hawkeyes 27¢ $7 78d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $7 80d
Hawks vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 59¢ $6 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY No 71¢ $5 82d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 83¢ $6 83d
Rockets vs. Bulls BUY Rockets 77¢ $6 83d
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins BUY UCLA Bruins 68¢ $6 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 88d
Hawks vs. Mavericks BUY Hawks 76¢ $7 89d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $7 91d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $7 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 96d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 4? BUY No 92¢ $6 103d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 86¢ $6 105d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.98 · official $13.98 (match) · 58 history records